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Can Cannon beat McCrory?
Unnoticed voter trends suggest it could happen
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Not everyone thinks it's a gamble he should take.
"Is it really worth it?" asked Norman Mitchell, the County Commission's senior African-American politician. "We can't afford to lose him because he's valuable, the senior elected official among black Americans in the county. We would hate to lose his experience to run for a position that is no more than just a figurehead."
But if it's what Cannon really wants, Mitchell says he will support him.
For the moment it appears that Cannon is waiting to see what McCrory will do. For most of the last decade, McCrory has been waiting for Republican Sue Myrick to stick to the term-limit plan she was so fond of when she first ran for Congress in 1994. Problem is, Myrick doesn't seem to be going anywhere and her district, which covers parts of Union, Mecklenburg and Gaston counties, has gotten more and more blue-collar conservative. Even Republicans increasingly say that a big city, moderate mayor like McCrory could get stomped by conservatives in a Republican primary in the district. In a statewide race, McCrory's Charlotte pedigree and mayoral title would be a weight around his neck. The bulk of the state's voters is still blue collar, and have again and again rejected statewide candidates from Charlotte.
"This is a tough position for Pat," said Mumford. And watching 28-year-old arch conservative Patrick McHenry, a Republican from Cherryville, win a Congressional seat this fall probably didn't help.
"I can imagine that McCrory sees this kid, Patrick McHenry, all of 28 years old who has kind of done nothing, he's in a Congressional seat in D.C. that is his to lose for the next 40 years and McCrory has been slogging it out over tough issues in a large urban area for years and is probably thinking 'What's fair about that?' That's got to be a tough pill to swallow."
Moreover, even though US Sen. Elizabeth Dole recently asked the White House to consider McCrory for one of several federal government posts, including administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, more than one local Republican didn't seem to think that he has much of a shot at landing one of the jobs.
"Those jobs are managing a bureaucracy of hundreds or thousands of people," said one. "He just has no experience doing that. If you want to get things done, you're going to want somebody who can manage a bureaucracy. So while a big city mayor who is a full-time mayor, who's running the city, has a good shot at an administrative post like that, a part-time mayor with very little managerial experience is starting way behind."
So at least for now, it appears that McCrory has few options beyond continuing to run for mayor time after time as the city's demographics continue to change. McCrory's crusade for light rail and an uptown arena angered a lot of conservatives in his party, and the mayor takes a near daily beating on local talk radio. Last year, some conservatives actually campaigned for his opponent, though obviously not with much success.
Meanwhile, potential challengers like Cannon bide their time on City Council, watching the time go by and getting antsy. If McCrory weren't in the race, Mumford, a moderate to liberal Republican, said he'd seriously consider running. And even Mumford says he wouldn't be surprised if a member of a growing list of retired business executives around here decided to take a crack at the mayor's office.
But one thing is certain. If Cannon wants to test the waters of Charlotte's changing demographics this year, he better dive in soon.
"He should be raising money by now," said Arrington.
Contact Tara Servatius at tara.servatius@cln.com
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