In predicting the major categories in last year's contest, I went 3-for-8, my worst showing in approximately two decades of Oscar prognosticating. But Gollum and his ilk have it even worse: Fantasy and science fiction films have gone 0-for-75 at the Academy Awards, with no movie in the genre ever having earned a Best Picture Oscar.
A handful of fantasy flicks have managed to snag a Best Picture nomination here and there -- Star Wars, E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial, the Lord of the Rings flicks -- but because of the Academy's well-established bias against movies that take extraordinary leaps of imagination, none have been victorious in the top category. Of course, that's all supposed to change this year, as the third LOTR movie is deemed the front-runner. But I don't think it's quite the lock that others seem to believe.
The 76th Annual Academy Awards will be presented at 8pm Sunday, February 29, on ABC. Here, then, are the contenders in the Big 8 categories, as well as my predictions and preferences.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY American Splendor, Robert Pulcini, Shari Springer Berman; City of God, Braulio Mantovani; The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson; Mystic River, Brian Helgeland; Seabiscuit, Gary Ross.
Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. The evening's Tolkien momentum might get slowed down in this category, where either Seabiscuit or Mystic River could easily pull off an upset. Still, I'll stick with Lords under the assumption that this will serve as a reward for Walsh, Boyens and Jackson adapting all three books so efficiently.
Preference: City of God. At heart, this drama about street wars in Rio de Janeiro is nothing more than a gangster flick, and we've all seen how tired that genre has become. Yet nothing about this film feels recycled, and that's largely due to Mantovani's skill in presenting us with distinct individuals in a specific locale.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY The Barbarian Invasions, Denys Arcand; Dirty Pretty Things, Steven Knight; Finding Nemo, Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson, David Reynolds; In America, Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan, Kirsten Sheridan; Lost In Translation, Sofia Coppola.
Prediction: Lost In Translation. Much has been made of the fact that Jim Sheridan wrote the script for his heartwarming tale with his daughters, and that gives In America a formidable edge to emerge as the "sentimental" favorite. Yet I suspect it will be another daughter -- Francis Coppola's -- who will take this prize, partly because she's almost sure to lose in the directing category but mostly because she clearly deserves the award.
Preference: Lost In Translation. A unique premise, two memorable lead characters, sparkling dialogue and a pleasant spiritual aftertaste all add up to the year's best script in either category.
BEST DIRECTOR Sofia Coppola, Lost In Translation; Clint Eastwood, Mystic River; Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King; Fernando Meirelles, City of God; Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.
Prediction: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Jackson won both the Directors Guild Award and the Golden Globe, so he seems a safe bet. But don't rule out Peter Weir, an Oscar perennial whose Master and Commander nearly tied Jackson's yarn as the year's most nominated film (one shy of Rings' 11).
Preference: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Coppola versus Jackson is classic "apples and oranges," not to mention "intimate vs. epic" and "David vs. Goliath." Deep down, I'd like to see Coppola take the prize, but it'd almost be churlish to deny Jackson his due for his exhaustive efforts on this series.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog; Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April; Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River; Holly Hunter, Thirteen; Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain.
Prediction: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain. Many have complained about her over-the-top work as a Southern hillbilly, but all I can say is that her overacting was a blessed relief when contrasted with the glum performances by Jude Law and Nicole Kidman. Her scenery-chewing is Oscar catnip, and having lost last year for Chicago only adds to the feeling that she's due. Her greatest enemy, though, is Miramax head Harvey Weinstein -- if he keeps moaning about Cold Mountain's lack of a Best Picture nomination, then Academy voters may shut the film out completely, just as they did last year with Weinstein's Gangs of New York.
Preference: Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April. I'd rather have seen Clarkson recognized for an even better performance in The Station Agent, but I'll settle for a victory under any condition. Still, a win by either Hunter or Zellweger won't exactly leave me boo-hooing.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Alec Baldwin, The Cooler; Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams; Djimon Hounsou, In America; Tim Robbins, Mystic River; Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai.
Prediction: Djimon Hounsou, In America. Sure, it's probably suicidal to bet against Tim Robbins. He's the clear front-runner. He's overdue for Academy recognition. He's a liberal activist, which, given the changing climate, probably won't hurt him (or Sean Penn, for that matter), especially in left-leaning Hollywood. And he's the longtime companion of Susan Sarandon, a highly respected actress and former Oscar winner. But I have a feeling about Hounsou that I just can't shake. Call it my Upset Special.
Preference: Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai. I really dug the shadings that Baldwin lent to his sweet-and-sour casino manager, but not enough to pick him over Watanabe, whose killer combo of forceful performance and movie star magnetism allowed him to swipe The Last Samurai right out from under Tom Cruise's nose.
BEST ACTRESS Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider; Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give; Samantha Morton, In America; Charlize Theron, Monster; Naomi Watts, 21 Grams.
Prediction: Charlize Theron, Monster. Morton has little chance, especially since her character disappears for huge chunks of the film; ditto Watts, despite her handful of critics' prizes. Castle-Hughes' performance has been breaking hearts and winning minds, so she looms as a potential dark horse. But this is clearly between Keaton and Theron, with the former's terrific comic turn going against the latter's frightening transformation. The fact that Keaton already has an Oscar means the edge goes to Theron, whose submergence in her role is similar to the disappearing act that earned Hilary Swank an Oscar for Boys Don't Cry.
Preference: Charlize Theron, Monster. I was completely on the Keaton bandwagon until I caught Monster in the waning moments of 2003. They're both sensational and they both deserve to win, but with push coming to shove, I'd go with Theron in a devastating performance that opens up her career.
BEST ACTOR Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl; Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog; Jude Law, Cold Mountain; Bill Murray, Lost In Translation; Sean Penn, Mystic River.
Prediction: Sean Penn, Mystic River. Law? Borderline filler. Kingsley? Worthy, but he's already won. Depp? Being nominated for a comedy role in a summer blockbuster is a reward in itself. Nope, this is a mano-a-mano contest between Penn and Murray. Murray's performance has generated more buzz as of late, but Penn's got a lot going for him. He's regularly labeled "the best actor of his generation"; he's been nominated on three previous occasions; he's also top-notch in 21 Grams; and he could potentially pull a Michael Moore at the Oscars if he wins, thereby ensuring the event will snag headlines beyond the norm. I'll go with Penn. . .
Preference: Bill Murray, Lost In Translation. . . . but will be the first one to leap off my couch if Murray wins. Let's face it: Murray has been as memorable as Penn over the course of his career, and here he delivers what will arguably remain a career performance (whereas Penn has given -- and will probably continue to give -- better performances than his Mystic turn).
BEST PICTURE The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (New Line; Barrie M. Osborne, Fran Walsh, Peter Jackson, producers); Lost In Translation (Focus Features; Ross Katz, Sofia Coppola, producers); Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World (20th Century Fox; Samuel Goldwyn Jr., Peter Weir, Duncan Henderson, producers); Mystic River (Warner Bros.; Robert Lorenz, Judie G. Hoyt, Clint Eastwood, producers); Seabiscuit (Universal / DreamWorks / Spyglass; Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, Gary Ross, producers).
Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. The film with the most nominations almost always wins Best Picture, but that fact didn't help the first Rings movie, which led in its year yet still lost to A Beautiful Mind. The Return of the King has a lot more going for it than its predecessors, namely a bushel of critics' awards and the feeling that it's time to reward the entire trilogy. Look for it to emerge victorious, but don't dismiss Master and Commander, which is the sort of traditional epic that the Academy is clearly more comfortable honoring.
Preference: Lost In Translation. I'm thrilled that the movie made it this far. It stands little chance of beating the studio behemoths against which it's competing, but it makes for a lovely daydream at any rate.
(Local film critics Matt Brunson of Creative Loafing, Lawrence Toppman of the Charlotte Observer and Lon Bumgarner of Charlotte Theatre Magazine will discuss the Oscars on WFAE's Charlotte Talks, with Mike Collins at 9am Thursday, February 26.)
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