Reflections on fate and chance pepper the landscape of No Country for Old Men, and a similar thread might be found in CL‘s annual Oscar predictions column. In tackling the top contenders for the 80th Annual Academy Awards (airing at 8 p.m. this Sunday, February 24, on ABC), am I destined to pick as well as I have in recent years (6-for-8 last year, 7-for-8 the year before), or will my selections ultimately seem as arbitrary as those coin tosses instigated by No Country‘s philosophical killer Anton Chigurh?
Either way, you can’t stop what’s coming (to quote another No Country character), meaning that despite the best efforts of prognosticators everywhere, the final fate of this year’s crop of nominees won’t be determined until the final envelope is ripped open. So without further ado, here are the contenders in the eight major categories.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement, Christopher Hampton; Away From Her, Sarah Polley; The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Ronald Harwood; No Country for Old Men, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen; There Will Be Blood, Paul Thomas Anderson.
Prediction: No Country for Old Men. No Country‘s script has won a number of critics’ prizes as well as honors from the Writer’s Guild and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (the Golden Globe folks). And while fidelity to the source material isn’t always required, the Coens have been praised for largely remaining true to Cormac McCarthy’s novel. It’s difficult to see anything else winning, unless voters decide to toss Anderson a consolation prize for not nabbing Best Director.
Preference: No Country for Old Men. Audacious, intelligent, unconventional, inventive, and capped by an uncompromising ending — here’s a brilliant script that’s good to the last drop (of blood).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno, Diablo Cody; Lars and the Real Girl, Nancy Oliver; Michael Clayton, Tony Gilroy; Ratatouille, Brad Bird; The Savages, Tamara Jenkins.
Prediction: Juno. Like No Country, Juno has torn through the critical landscape, with a Writer’s Guild prize to top it all off. Cody’s back story — stripper makes good! — will help in some quarters, hurt in others, but the momentum is too great to ignore. The only possible spoiler is Gilroy, who (a la Paul Thomas Anderson; see above) might be honored here since he ain’t winning anywhere else.
Preference: Juno. It’s tempting to go with Ratatouille — the writing in animated features is often underrated — but Juno‘s script is such a delight, not even so much for its choice slang but for its raft of vibrant characters and its unexpected ability to go further beneath the surface than initially expected.
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men; Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton; Jason Reitman, Juno; Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.
Prediction: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men. The Coens won the Director’s Guild award, a remarkably accurate barometer. Schnabel snagged some hefty recognition for his startling achievement (including the Golden Globe and the Cannes prize), but his film’s lack of a Best Picture nomination cripples his chances. Anderson has a slim shot, but his movie continues to lurk in the shadow of the Coens’ equally daring project.
Preference: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men. Only once in the Academy’s history has a directing team won in this category (Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for West Side Story). Clearly, bros Joel and Ethan deserve to be the second tag team so honored — there are scenes in this picture so riveting that they continue to haunt me months after my initial viewing.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There; Ruby Dee, American Gangster; Saoirse Ronan, Atonement; Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone; Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton.
Prediction: Ruby Dee, American Gangster. This is the hardest of the major categories to call. Ryan won a whopping 12 critics’ awards before Blanchett scored a couple of significant coups, including the Golden Globe. Then along came Dee to snag the Screen Actors Guild trophy. And if that didn’t gum up the works enough, perpetual bridesmaid Swinton scored a surprising victory with BAFTA (aka the British Oscars). In other words, only the kid (Ronan) can be ruled out. If Blanchett hadn’t just recently won for The Aviator, she’d be my pick; as it stands, it’s hard to ignore Dee. True, her part in American Gangster is tiny, but the Academy loves to honor veterans, and Dee’s standing as a tireless activist for civil rights also doesn’t hurt.
Preference: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone. A phenomenal performance in a great movie that should have earned additional nominations in other categories.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford; Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War; Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild; Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton.
Prediction: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men. What’s all this nonsense about Bardem being a sure thing? Yes, he’s won the majority of the precursor awards (including SAG and the Golden Globe), but this is the Academy, a group that loves to hand out career achievement awards under the guise of honoring individual performances (see, among others, Jack Palance, Don Ameche, and last year’s winner in this category, Alan Arkin). That opens the door for Holbrook, a beloved veteran who’s never even been nominated for an Academy Award. And the fact that he’s actually good in Into the Wild only makes handing him the prize even easier for voters. I’ll stick with odds-on favorite Bardem — when it comes to honoring oldies, Holbrook’s fellow octogenarian Ruby Dee has a clearer path to victory — but I won’t be surprised in the least if Holbrook’s name is called.
Preference: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men. Anyone who’s seen Before Night Falls or The Dancer Upstairs knows that Bardem is one seriously sexy man. Yet in No Country, he’s ugly in every way possible, from that bowl haircut on the outside to that diseased soul on the inside. With little dialogue but plenty of menace, Bardem’s Anton Chigurh is a movie villain for the ages.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Julie Christie, Away From Her; Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose; Laura Linney, The Savages; Ellen Page, Juno.
Prediction: Julie Christie, Away From Her. We can’t really count Christie’s previous Oscar win against her, since that occurred 42 years ago (for Darling). Despite limited screen time, Christie’s performance in Away From Her has dazzled enough critics and Hollywood insiders that she’s been winning awards left and right. Her fiercest competition comes from Cotillard, who’s managed to pick up the few crumbs not gobbled by Christie. And let’s not discount Page, who’s the driving force behind the Oscar season’s feel-good flick.
Preference: (tie) Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose, and Ellen Page, Juno. If the Academy can have one Best Actress tie in its history (between Funny Girl‘s Barbara Streisand and The Lion In Winter‘s Katharine Hepburn), then by God, so can I. Cotillard’s transformation into Edith Piaf is staggering, more so to those who’ve seen photos of what the 32-year-old actress really looks like. But no less affecting is Page’s heartfelt turn as Juno, a performance that beautifully captures all manner of teen angst and attitude.
BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton; Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street; Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah; Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises.
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood. The closest thing to a lock. Clooney just won (for Syriana) and Depp will eventually win. In the meantime, here’s the intense Day-Lewis playing to the rafters in an everything-but-the-kitchen-sink performance that additionally features the year’s most notorious catchphrase (“I drink your milkshake!”).
Preference: Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley Of Elah. The most subtle performance of Jones’ long and distinguished career has also emerged as the best. As a father (and military man) trying to solve the murder of his son, he does more with a mere glance or tightening of the lips than most actors accomplish with their whole body in motion. The fact that he’s also noteworthy in No Country for Old Men is merely the cherry on top.
BEST PICTURE
Atonement (Focus Features; Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Paul Webster, producers); Juno (Fox Searchlight; Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick, Russell Smith, producers); Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.; Sydney Pollack, Jennifer Fox, Kerry Orent, producers); No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage; Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, producers); There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage and Miramax; JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Daniel Lupi, producers).
Prediction: No Country for Old Men. The last film to bulldoze its way through the awards season in a comparable fashion was Brokeback Mountain, and we all remember how that Crashed on Oscar night. Let’s be honest, neither No Country nor There Will Be Blood, the two films with the most nominations, are traditional Oscar pictures: They’re too untidy, too dark, and too unsettling to be universally embraced by Academy members (especially wheezy geezers like Tony Curtis and Ernest Borgnine). No, the “perfect” Oscar movie is Atonement — literary, epic, tastefully presented — but except for late Best Picture wins from BAFTA and the Globes, it was completely MIA during awards season, and the lack of a Best Director nod further hurts its chances. Michael Clayton is very well-represented — six of its seven nods are in the major categories — and it’s the sort of refined, middlebrow entertainment that Academy members can support. But it’s been an also-ran this entire time, and it just feels like the type of film that will end the night with no wins (e.g. Seabiscuit, Good Night, and Good Luck, Munich). That leaves Juno, the sunniest picture of the lot as well as the only one to emerge as a sizable box office hit (Oscar voters smile on moneymakers, since it keeps the industry churning). But with only four overall nominations, it clearly faces an uphill battle. Almost by default, then, the winner has to be No Country for Old Men …
Preference: No Country for Old Men. … And that’s fine with me, since it proves that the Academy occasionally does honor artistry rather than just monetary success (yes, I’m referring to Gladiator and Titanic). It was an excellent year for cinema, and the best way Oscar voters can acknowledge that fact is by picking the best picture of 2007 as the Best Picture of 2007.
Visit www.theclogblog.com for photos of CL‘s predicted Oscar winners.
This article appears in Feb 20-26, 2008.
