It’s hard to believe, but a major national media event may unfold in Charlotte in 2002, and it won’t involve sports or a homicide.
It just so happens that the hottest US Senate race in the country could be centered right here if Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democrat Erskine Bowles make it out of their respective primaries next spring.
“The control of the US Senate could hinge on this race,” said former Charlotte City Council member Stan Campbell.
Because Bowles is a wealthy businessman with an address in Charlotte and Dole lists her home address in Salisbury, some 65 miles away, Charlotte will likely be the epicenter of their campaigns, particularly since the two have good friends here and strong ties to the same elite Charlotte circles. And a race between the two would likely attract big names from across the country to Charlotte.
“Both of these candidates are pretty closely tied to the past president or the current president,” said Campbell. “Bowles might get Hillary Clinton to come here and campaign for him. I guarantee you that George W. Bush will be down campaigning for Dole.”
Put it all together, let the candidates maul each other a bit and you’ve got a made-for-the-networks story.
“This could mean huge national publicity for Charlotte next year,” said former Republican County Chairman Frank Whitney.
Local Democrat strategist Tom Chumley agrees.
“There will probably be more money raised out of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County than anywhere else in this race,” said Chumley. “Mecklenburg County is not going to provide a winning vote margin to anyone in the race, but because it is one of the key media places in the state, it will be a base of operation.”
Any candidate who wants to reach rural voters across the state will have to run television commercials on Charlotte news and radio stations, which reach across the most of the Piedmont from west of Winston-Salem up into Yancey County. Pundits predict that could mean national news crews crawling the streets of Charlotte, looking for a piece of the action.
The race will be important nationally because it will likely be one of the five or six truly competitive races across the country that determine which party controls the US Senate, currently standing at 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and one independent. Dole’s high profile will also draw attention if she makes it out of the primary, and the question of who will replace outgoing Senator Jesse Helms is also of some national interest.
But the only way Charlotte will get in on a piece of the action is if Bowles and Dole win their primaries. If one of the other unknown Republican primary candidates like Lexington lawyer Jim Snyder, Salisbury physician Ada Fisher, Lumberton radiologist Jim Parker or Salisbury insurance agent Douglas Sellers were to win the primary, they’d likely be trounced by any of the folks running on the Democrat ticket, which would make it a sleeper of a race that would draw little national coverage — or money.
On the other hand, if Dole wins the Republican primary and Bowles loses the Democrat primary, Dole could likely beat the other candidates currently on the Democrat ticket. Though he is well-known in the Triangle area, African-American State Rep. Dan Blue of Raleigh would have to overcome an historically low success rate for African-Americans who run statewide in North Carolina. Popular NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, a Harnett County Democrat who beat NASCAR legend Richard Petty in 1996, has some experience running against celebrities, and could pose something of a challenge to Dole, but her lack of national connections and fundraising ability make that a long shot. Even if a race between the two women heated up, it would probably move the center of the campaign — and the national media coverage — away from Charlotte and toward the Triangle.
For the time being, political junkies agree that Bowles, who was President Bill Clinton’s chief of staff, is the only Democratic candidate experienced and well-connected enough to give Dole a competitive race worthy of national media attention.
“I think the Democratic National Committee would put more importance on the race if Bowles wins the Democrat nomination,” said Chumley. “It may not be like the Jesse Helms/Harvey Gantt race in 1990 when we had reporters from Japan and France at the Mallard Creek Barbecue, but it will get a lot of attention.”
Campbell, a Republican, said he’s hearing the same thing from Washington.
“Both national parties have committed major sums of money, in the $20 million range, to the candidates who will represent the party in this race,” said Campbell. “If Dole wins and Bowles doesn’t, the national Republican party would probably still spend the money, but the Democrats would probably bow out.”
While Dole certainly has the lead in the polls right now with an average of 60 percent of the vote to 13-15 percent of the vote for Bowles, UNCC political science professor Ted Arrington predicts that Snyder, who is running to the right of Dole in the Republican primary, will “bloody her up a little” by questioning her soft stance on issues dear to conservatives, possibly pulling her numbers down enough to make a race between her and Bowles competitive. And if all those stars line up, the heart of that competition will be in Charlotte.
“When you talk about a city like Charlotte, it is interesting to people because they don’t know who we are,” said Arrington. “The San Antonios and the Charlottes are still exotic to people, and if this campaign focuses on us, we will get a lot of attention. The media won’t just go to Raleigh like they did during the presidential election.”
Whitney said there will be plenty to cover here as the city’s power brokers choose between the two candidates. In the past, many of them, like former Bank of America head Hugh McColl, have tended to support Democrats at home and Republicans nationally. But then, many of the same people play golf with Bowles or travel in interlocking circles.
“What do you do if you are a Republican who plays golf with Bowles or a Democrat who wants to see a woman elected to the Senate (in North Carolina) for the first time?” Whitney asks.
Arrington has a theory on that. “I would guess if it is Dole versus Bowles, they will give to both,” he said.
That could leave local candidates in the lurch.
“I think it will blank local races right off the TV altogether,” said Arrington.*
This article appears in Dec 15-21, 2001.
