Let’s begin with a forceful declaration: Without question, Chicago will win the Best Picture Oscar when the awards are handed out next Sunday, March 23. Why start with this bold assertion? Because hopefully it will give me confidence in calling the other races in the organization’s 75th annual celebration.With at least two viable candidates in practically every other category besides Best Picture, this has shaped up to be one of the most difficult years in recent memory to predict. A key factor, of course, will be whether this is one of those “sweep mentality” races, when the front-runner wins every award that isn’t being secretly swiped by Roberto Benigni. You know the mindset — for example, when the thatched huts of eight-time winner Gandhi beat the revolutionary cityscapes of Blade Runner for the Best Art Direction & Set Decoration Oscar, or when nine-time winner The English Patient, with its handful of explosions, toppled Independence Day, wall-to-wall with racket, for the Best Sound prize. If Academy members are as ga-ga over Chicago as they appear to be, then there could be no stopping its juggernaut jaunt through the evening’s festivities.
With that in mind, let’s now move on to predicting the victors in the Big 8 categories. May the Force — or, in this case, Harvey Weinstein — be with me.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYAbout a Boy, Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz, Paul Weitz; Adaptation, Charlie Kaufman; Chicago, Bill Condon; The Hours, David Hare; The Pianist, Ronald Harwood.Prediction: The Hours. In all likelihood, the potential Chicago sweep won’t extend to this category. Instead, look for Hare’s literary script (the Writer’s Guild pick) to take this tony award.
Preference: The Hours. For a story that’s largely about introspection and inner demons, it’s remarkable to what extent Hare has managed to translate a reportedly “unfilmable” novel into a flesh-and-blood experience that truly comes alive on screen.BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYFar From Heaven, Todd Haynes; Gangs of New York, Jay Cocks, Steve Zaillian, Kenneth Lonergan; My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Nia Vardalos; Talk to Her, Pedro Almodovar; Y Tu Mama Tambien, Carlos Cuaron, Alfonso Cuaron.Prediction: Gangs of New York. Only the script from the Cuaron brothers is out of the running. Gangs is the only Best Picture nominee in this category; Wedding might be rewarded for its potent box office; Heaven might win as a consolation prize for Haynes, who was overlooked in the director category; and the buzz surrounding Talk‘s daring script has never subsided. This one’s extremely hard to call; I’ll go with Gangs, if only because it will need a few victories to show for its 10 nominations.
Preference: Far From Heaven. An easy pick. From its “taboo” subjects to the retro rhythms of the dialogue, Haynes’ intricate script manages at once to be old-fashioned while also maintaining a modern edge.BEST DIRECTORPedro Almodovar, Talk to Her; Stephen Daldry, The Hours; Rob Marshall, Chicago; Roman Polanski, The Pianist; Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York.Prediction: Rob Marshall, Chicago. Until Marshall won the Director’s Guild Award (an extremely accurate Oscar barometer), I was certain that this would be the year that Scorsese would win his long overdue Oscar. It could still happen — he certainly places better odds than Polanski (still soiled by that long-ago rape charge) or Daldry and Almodovar (no chance for either). But with Chicago steamrolling its way through all the recent guild awards, it’s hard to believe the Academy won’t honor the man most responsible for its success.
Preference: Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York. Here’s the funny thing: This isn’t a sentimental or career achievement nod on my part. Of the five nominees, I honestly think he most deserves the win (now, add Far From Heaven‘s Todd Haynes or Minority Report‘s Steven Spielberg to the ballot and the equation changes). He spent decades trying to get this off the ground, tangled with Miramax head Harvey Weinstein in several well-publicized feuds, and still had enough strength to bring his powerful epic to the screen just as he had envisioned it.BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSKathy Bates, About Schmidt; Julianne Moore, The Hours; Queen Latifah, Chicago; Meryl Streep, Adaptation; Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago.Prediction: Meryl Streep, Adaptation. Moore might win this as a consolation prize for not taking the Best Actress Oscar, but more likely it’s a down-to-the-wire race between Streep and Zeta-Jones. It’s been 20 years since Streep’s last win, and the all-time record holder for most nominations (13) deserves at least one more statue to go along with her previous two. But Zeta-Jones won the Screen Actors Guild award, is married to Hollywood royalty (Michael Douglas), is presently pregnant (that “aw, how sweet” thing, you know), and is featured in the likely Best Picture winner. Of course, these exact four factors also informed Annette Bening’s bid a few years ago for American Beauty, and she still lost. I’ll go with Streep, though just barely.
Preference: Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago. Any doubts about Zeta-Jones’ abilities as an actress were put to rest with her show-stopping turn in the hit musical. In fact, the role allows her to act, sing and dance, and she does all three with gusto.BEST SUPPORTING ACTORChris Cooper, Adaptation; Ed Harris, The Hours; Paul Newman, Road to Perdition; John C. Reilly, Chicago; Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can.Prediction: Chris Cooper, Adaptation. A well-liked character actor in Hollywood, Cooper has already garnered 11 critics’ awards and a Golden Globe for his eccentric turn in this eccentric comedy. He’s the tenuous front-runner in a five-way race that also includes Harris (long overdue), Newman (sentimental favorite), Reilly (also solid in Gangs of New York, The Hours and The Good Girl) and Walken (the surprise SAG winner). Like Streep, Cooper should be able to overcome an apparent apathy for his movie and win on the strength of his colorful performance.
Preference: John C. Reilly, Chicago. Personal fave Harris deserved to win for both Apollo 13 and The Truman Show, yet I’ll be angry if they make up for the slights by honoring him for what is the least satisfying (certainly least subtle) portrayal of his career. Instead, I’d like to see the trophy go to regular joe John C. Reilly, who was terrific in four of the year’s most memorable movies.BEST ACTRESSSalma Hayek, Frida; Nicole Kidman, The Hours; Diane Lane, Unfaithful; Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven; Renee Zellweger, Chicago.Prediction: Nicole Kidman, The Hours. Pound for pound, the most solid line-up of the evening. Moore captured 12 critics’ awards for her performance, and even a two-month-old could recognize that she deserves the Oscar; alas, the buzz surrounding her film has subsided over the last couple months. On the other hand, Chicago‘s steam continues to build, and Zellweger’s win at the SAG awards may have elevated her to front-runner status. Still, I’ll go with Kidman, who’s primarily hurt by the fact that she appears in The Hours for only 30 minutes (though appearing in The Silence of the Lambs for a comparable amount of screen time didn’t prevent Anthony Hopkins from winning his Best Actor Oscar). But beyond the Oscar-bait notion that she de-glamorized herself for the role, she may also benefit from the fact that many felt she would win last year for Moulin Rouge.
Preference: Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven. I’ll just repeat my usual mantra: Julianne Moore’s heartbreaking turn in Far From Heaven was the best performance by an actor in any category in 2002. Period.BEST ACTORAdrien Brody, The Pianist; Nicolas Cage, Adaptation; Michael Caine, The Quiet American; Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York; Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt.Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York. Caine and Cage have no hope, and I don’t agree with the other scribes who view Brody as a formidable dark horse. Instead, it will be between the two men who have divided up practically all of the year’s previous movie honors. In the end, I think the Academy will prefer to give Day-Lewis a second Oscar rather than award Nicholson a fourth.
Preference: Michael Caine, The Quiet American. Given the Academy’s penchant for scenery-chewing, it’s remarkable that three-and-a-half of the nominations went to quiet, understated performances (Brody, Caine, Nicholson and Cage for the less flamboyant of the two characters he played). And nobody was more understated — and more deserving of the Oscar — than Caine, whose work as a jaded journalist hanging onto his love and his livelihood caps an excellent career.BEST PICTUREChicago (Miramax; Martin Richards, producer); Gangs of New York (Miramax; Alberto Grimaldi, Harvey Weinstein, producers); The Hours (Paramount & Miramax; Scott Rudin, Robert Fox, producers); The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (New Line; Barrie M. Osborne, Fran Walsh, Peter Jackson, producers); The Pianist (Focus Features; Roman Polanski, Robert Benmussa, Alain Sarde, producers).Prediction: Chicago. I suppose The Hours has a slight shot, but this prize is Chicago‘s to lose. It’s a box office hit, it’s already been honored with multiple awards, and, even more than Moulin Rouge, it might spark a revival of one of the most American of film genres: the movie musical.
Preference: The Hours. I’ll be happy with a victory by either The Hours or Chicago, but forced to choose, I’d give the edge to the former, the sort of weighty, transcendent adult drama that Hollywood only bothers to make once a year — during Oscar season, of course.
Party With OscarOnce again, the Academy Awards ceremony is upon us for our partying convenience. Since we’re usually hung over on Monday mornings anyway, why not spend the seemingly endless hours with this nominee-specific drinking game? The object is to pass out before they’re done passing out the gold statuettes.
1) Every time host Steve Martin makes a joke that, by sheer coincidence, plugs his new movie Bringing Down the House, have a drink.
2) Every time an award recipient makes a plea for world peace, drink a martini with an olive (branch).
3) Every time Gangs of New York wins an award, have a Manhattan.
4) Every time someone from Chicago wins, take a drink of bathtub gin from a flapper’s slipper.
5) Every time someone from Chicago wins and “shares this award” with non-nominee Richard Gere, say a mantra.
6) Every time Frida wins, have a shot of tequila.
7) Every time we see or hear reference to Nicole Kidman’s prosthetic nose in The Hours, snort a line.
8) If Michael Moore’s Bowling for Columbine wins Best Documentary Feature, have a shooter or fire a gun in the front yard.
9) If Roman Polanski’s The Pianist wins anything, slip a mickey into your date’s drink, then flee the United States for three decades.
10) If My Big Fat Greek Wedding gets Best Original Screenplay, pound Ouzo and shout “Opa!” until CBS gives you a sitcom. Then slowly slip into obscurity.
11) If Hayao Miyazaki’s brilliant Spirited Away wins Best Animated Feature, drink sake. If anything else wins, destroy any Disney videotape in the house.
12) When Peter O’Toole accepts his award for Lifetime Achievement, set off on a pub crawl for several weeks. If O’Toole himself appears plastered, quote his My Favorite Year line: “So are some of the finest erections in Europe!” Curt Holman
This article appears in Mar 19-25, 2003.
