With no hobbits in sight, don’t expect this year’s Oscars to resemble one long siesta. Between The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King going 11-for-11 and all the favored actors taking home statues, last year’s shindig was, to put it mildly, short on surprises and excitement. Handicapping the awards proved to be a no-brainer for film writers: I went 7-for-8 in the major categories and would have had a perfect score had I not outsmarted myself by assuming that there had to be one upset lurking somewhere (no such luck).
But this year? It’s a brand new ballgame. With no money-generating behemoths in sight — for the first time in ages, not one of the Best Picture nominees has cracked $100 million at the box office — there’s no opportunity for Academy members to vote with their wallets (see: dubious victories for Gladiator and Titanic). And with the most honored film in the bunch earning the least amount of nominations (Sideways has won more Best Picture awards than the other four contenders combined, yet it’s only up for a total of five Oscars), there’s no chance for voters to jump on the bandwagon and herd it toward an across-the-board sweep (see: ROTK, Titanic, The English Patient).
These are just two of the factors that point to an unpredictable Oscar contest, one that could witness Martin Scorsese finally receiving his due or one that could see even more honors bestowed on Hollywood legend Clint Eastwood. Yet the picture and director races aren’t the only ones up for grabs. While The Aviator seems likely to win the majority of the technical awards, it’s possible that it could be stopped in its tracks by movies as diverse as The Passion of the Christ and Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events. And even in the other top categories (acting and writing), victory is not assured to anyone whose name isn’t Jamie Foxx.
The 77th Annual Academy Awards will be presented at 8pm Sunday, February 27, on ABC. Here, then, are the contenders in the Big 8 categories.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before Sunset, Richard Linklater, Kim Krizan, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke; Finding Neverland, David Magee; Million Dollar Baby, Paul Haggis; The Motorcycle Diaries, Jose Rivera; Sideways, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor.
Prediction: Sideways. Don’t underestimate the Million Dollar momentum, which could piggyback Haggis’ excellent adaptation to a win. But Sideways has consistently been praised for its exceptional dialogue and attention to characterization by both critics and audiences; plus, it’s hard to imagine this film going home empty-handed, and this is its best shot at a victory.
Preference: Sideways. Payne and Taylor deserved to win five years ago for their Election adaptation; this time, the Academy should get it right.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Aviator, John Logan; Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry, Pierre Bismuth; Hotel Rwanda, Terry George, Keir Pearson; The Incredibles, Brad Bird; Vera Drake, Mike Leigh.
Prediction: The Aviator. Most prognosticators smell an Eternal victory, and that’s a possibility. But if The Aviator sweeps, the script by Logan (who penned a previous Best Picture winner, Gladiator) might get carried along; if it doesn’t, then this could act as a consolation prize. The fact that few bring up the screenplay when discussing this movie’s success hurts, but knowing that Logan meticulously researched his subject might help him score some votes.
Preference: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. 1) Check out the name of this category. 2) Note the inclusion of the word “Original.” 3) Watch Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Any questions?
BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby; Taylor Hackford, Ray; Mike Leigh, Vera Drake; Alexander Payne, Sideways; Martin Scorsese, The Aviator.
Prediction: Martin Scorsese, The Aviator. Historically, the winner of the Directors Guild Award ends up winning the Oscar, which aids Eastwood immeasurably. But in recent times, the Academy has tended to make its own way in this category, with the winners differing twice in the past four years and thrice in the past nine. Everyone knows that Scorsese is criminally overdue for Oscar recognition, while Eastwood already has two statues for directing and producing Unforgiven. On the other hand, Eastwood is a rarity — a Republican who can think for himself and make informed decisions (his recent swipe at both the right and the left was dead-on) — which might help explain why he’s so beloved in liberal Hollywood and why they won’t have any trouble bathing him in more accolades. This is a tough one, but I’ll go with Scorsese.
Preference: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby. OK, from an emotional standpoint, I badly want Scorsese to win: I don’t know if he’ll ever make another movie as Academy-friendly as this one, and I don’t want him to share the fate of Alfred Hitchcock and Howard Hawks, two other exceptional directors who never won a competitive Oscar. But viewing the race with cool-eyed detachment, the premiere directorial feat of the year belongs to Eastwood, who adds layers of nuance to make a complex tale even more thought-provoking.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator; Laura Linney, Kinsey; Virginia Madsen, Sideways; Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda; Natalie Portman, Closer.
Prediction: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator. This is the category for upsets (Marcia Gay Harden, Juliette Binoche), so keep an eye on Okonedo. This is also the category where they like to reward Pretty Young Things (Marisa Tomei, Mira Sorvino), so look out for Golden Globe winner Portman. But the race primarily seems to be between Madsen and Blanchett. Madsen won the vast majority of critics’ prize for her subtle turn, and this formerly forgotten 80s mainstay represents a great “comeback” story. Blanchett, a former Best Actress nominee for Elizabeth, is a hard-working professional (18 movies in the past six years!), and her exquisite channeling of Hollywood legend (and Oscar favorite) Katharine Hepburn should tickle the fancy of enough voters.
Preference: Virginia Madsen, Sideways. Madsen delivers a lovely performance from first appearance to last, but even if she had sucked during the rest of the film, she would still deserve the award solely for the already-classic scene in which she and Paul Giamatti quietly yet passionately discuss the allure of wine.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Alda, The Aviator; Thomas Haden Church, Sideways; Jamie Foxx, Collateral; Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby; Clive Owen, Closer.
Prediction: Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby. Church won practically all the critics’ awards, but as one commentator previously pointed out (cruelly but truthfully), when all is said and done, who is Thomas Haden Church except the guy who used to be on the sitcom Wings? Golden Globe winner Owen has an outside shot, as does longtime Tinseltown veteran Alda. But Freeman, acknowledged by many as one of the industry’s finest actors, has never won an Oscar despite walking off with countless films. It just feels like it’s his time.
Preference: Thomas Haden Church, Sideways. Freeman is worthy, and a win by Owen would probably get me off the couch. But Church’s powerhouse portrayal — at turns boisterous, witty, confident and tragic — clearly deserves to win… even if he is the guy from Wings.
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Being Julia; Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace; Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake; Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby; Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
Prediction: Annette Bening, Being Julia. Had the Academy done the right thing five years ago and awarded American Beauty‘s Bening the Best Actress citation over Boys Don’t Cry‘s Swank, then Swank would be as much of a frontrunner this year as Jamie Foxx. But despite Baby‘s momentum, it’s hard to see the Academy handing a second Oscar to a performer whose body of work is forgettable beyond Boys and Baby (The Next Karate Kid? The Core?). Not to mention, two Oscars would put her in the same class as Bette Davis, Spencer Tracy and Marlon Brando, to name just a few of the superstars to win more than once. For this reason, I’m gonna have to go with Bening: Her film was a mere blip on the 2004 movie scene, but she delivers a worthy performance, and many may want to further reward her for domesticating Warren Beatty. Upset Special: critical darling Staunton.
Preference: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby. With apologies to Foxx, Church and Madsen, this just might be the best performance in any category. Swank transcends the expected pluck and determination found in these sorts of underdog roles to create a shattering portrayal of a woman who’s determined to make her own decisions, no matter what the consequences.
BEST ACTOR
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda; Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator; Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby; Jamie Foxx, Ray.
Prediction: Jamie Foxx, Ray. Aside from The Incredibles for Best Animated Film, this is the event’s biggest lock. The only potential challenge comes not from DiCaprio (who will have more chances) but from Eastwood, who hand-delivers a career performance as Baby’s crusty coach.
Preference: Jamie Foxx, Ray. Foxx’s work as the late music legend is so astonishing, viewers would be forgiven for thinking that Ray Charles himself was playing Ray Charles.
BEST PICTURE
The Aviator (Miramax; Michael Mann, Graham King, producers); Finding Neverland (Miramax; Richard N. Gladstein, Nellie Bellflower, producers); Million Dollar Baby (Warner Bros.; Clint Eastwood, Albert S. Ruddy, Tom Rosenberg, producers); Ray (Universal; Taylor Hackford, Stuart Benjamin, Howard Baldwin, producers); Sideways (Fox Searchlight; Michael London, producer).
Prediction: The Aviator. Ray and Finding Neverland have no chance, but Sideways might yet surprise (its SAG victory for Best Ensemble demonstrates that the industry is almost as fond of the movie as the critics). Still, everyone knows this is basically a tug-of-war between the Marty ‘n’ Clint shows. The film with the most nominations almost always wins Best Picture (18-for-20 the past two decades), which helps The Aviator. The fly-boy flick also bested Baby for the Golden Globe and the Producers Guild Award, two major feathers in its cap. But how do we quantify that elusive property known as “buzz”? All the recent talk (the controversies as well as the hosannas) has completely centered around Baby, which also has the advantage of opening wide right after the nominations were announced (thus insuring high visibility). It’s possible the Academy will honor both films by handing Scorsese Director and Baby Picture (or Eastwood Director and Aviator Picture), but I’m going to predict it’s The Aviator that will swoop down and snatch both prizes.
Preference: Million Dollar Baby. The Aviator cracked my 10 Best list, but the only movies that blew me away during 2004 were Million Dollar Baby and Sideways. I love them equally, but forced to choose, I’d give the edge to Baby, which stands as the summation of a great filmmaker’s great career.
This article appears in Feb 23 – Mar 1, 2005.
