Is the media making a Mountain out of a molehill? Or will the Best Picture chances of the year's Oscar front-runner indeed Crash and burn?
Ever since its bow at the Toronto Film Festival, Brokeback Mountain has been the clear favorite to win the top prize at the 78th Annual Academy Awards ceremony, airing live this Sunday, March 5, on ABC. It swept through the awards season, winning 12 Best Picture prizes (no other film won more than two), and when the Oscar nominations were announced, it led the field with eight citations.
Of course, as with any film that simultaneously bucks the trend and becomes too popular, the expected backlash set in. And during the nay-saying, a small whisper started circulating that Crash, last summer's sleeper hit about racial tensions in Los Angeles, could upset the cowboy yarn for the Best Picture Oscar. Led by film critic Roger Ebert, who seemingly spends every waking moment championing Crash (his favorite film of 2005) and who recently compared writer-director Paul Haggis to Charles Dickens(!), the whisper grew into a roar, and now it seems as if Crash might indeed pull off the upset.
Or is that just wishful thinking on the part of its supporters? The "buzz" -- that nebulous entity that's wrong as often as it's right -- claims that LA voters are reacting more strongly to an emotional (detractors would say manipulative) and contemporary story set in their own backyard than a tale that takes place in the high-altitude air of fly-over Wyoming. What's more, the "buzz" also states that Academy voters aren't as liberal as one might expect, and that many members, particularly the older ones, are reluctant to even watch a "gay cowboy" movie, let alone vote for one.
Of course, what the "buzz" isn't taking into account is that Crash isn't exactly a feel-good piffle about nothing; it's about volatile race relations, a subject that, In the Heat of the Night aside, isn't exactly an Academy favorite. After all, this is the group that in 1989 gave the Best Picture Oscar to Driving Miss Daisy, in which a black man is subservient to a white woman, while not even nominating Glory, about heroic blacks during the Civil War, or Do the Right Thing, the Spike Lee masterpiece whose racial complexity makes similar scenes in Crash seem like Sesame Street primers by comparison. This is also the same Academy that loves to lavish buckets of nominations and awards on epic biopics like Gandhi and The Last Emperor yet could only cough up a measly two nominations for Lee's Malcolm X, about as accomplished a biopic as Hollywood has ever produced.
Crash is fine but deeply flawed, and if it wins, history will quickly reveal it as one of the most undeserving films ever to snag the top prize, joining a growing list that already includes the likes of The Greatest Show On Earth, Oliver!, Titanic and Gladiator. Let's hope Academy members think long and hard before marking those ballots.
Here, then, are the contenders in the eight major categories.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Brokeback Mountain, Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana; Capote, Dan Futterman; The Constant Gardener, Jeffrey Price; A History of Violence, Josh Olson; Munich, Tony Kushner, Eric Roth.
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain. An easy call, even if the Capote script did win as many critics' awards as Brokeback. But the year's most celebrated movie will almost certainly be recognized for its writers, who took Annie Proulx's short story and fleshed it out into a richly textured film. McMurtry's status as a legendary author won't hurt, either.
Preference: The Constant Gardener. It's hard to bypass the Brokeback screenplay, but no other movie this past year engaged my senses as much as this adaptation of the John Le Carre novel. Price juggled a piercing love story, a taut thriller and a scathing political expose -- to marvelous effect.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Crash, Paul Haggis, Bobby Moresco; Good Night, and Good Luck, George Clooney, Grant Heslov; Match Point, Woody Allen; The Squid and the Whale, Noah Baumbach; Syriana, Stephen Gaghan.
Prediction: Crash. Crash and The Squid and the Whale equally divided the critics' honors, but this marks Squid's only Oscar nomination, dropping it to long-shot status. That leaves a clear path for Crash, whose writer was nominated (and lost) last year for Million Dollar Baby. Haggis' sleeper hit has struck a chord, and this will be the most obvious place to gain recognition. Its only nominal competition comes from Good Night, and Good Luck, with its script by director Clooney and producer Heslov.
Preference: Good Night, and Good Luck. Beyond the fact that it deserves the Oscar for its meticulous recreation of historical events and its ability to mold distinct personalities during its brief running time, Good Night needs further exposure as a cautionary tale about the frightening consequences of unchecked right-wing demagoguery -- the film's as much about today as it's about 1954.
BEST DIRECTOR
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck; Paul Haggis, Crash; Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain; Bennett Miller, Capote; Steven Spielberg, Munich.
Prediction: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain. Even if Crash pulls off the Best Picture upset, it's unlikely that Haggis will win this prize. Ang Lee is practically a lock, not only because he won the Directors Guild Award but because many had expected him to win in this category five years ago for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. His only serious competition is Clooney -- let's not forget that the Academy loves to honor actors in this category (Clint Eastwood, Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner, Robert Redford).
Preference: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain. Ang Lee's versatility never ceases to amaze: While most other directors remain tethered to the same types of pictures, he has leap-frogged from Sense and Sensibility to The Ice Storm to Crouching Tiger to Hulk (OK, we forgive him for Hulk). His subtle work on Brokeback -- perfectly attuned to the rhythms of the material -- might be his most accomplished feat yet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Junebug; Catherine Keener, Capote; Frances McDormand, North Country; Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener; Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain.
Prediction: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener. Weisz won both the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild award, and rarely (if ever) has a performer captured both and then gone on to lose the Oscar. Still, the competition in this formidable category is fierce, even after writing off past winner McDormand. Williams could win as part of a Brokeback sweep, Keener could be recognized for her hard work in 2005 (dissimilar roles in four movies) and Adams has that perky Marisa Tomei/Mira Sorvino vibe going for her. I'll stick with Weisz, but Adams is my upset special.
Preference: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener. Weisz has stated that it's absurd her leading man Ralph Fiennes wasn't nominated (no argument here), meaning she's carrying the torch for an acclaimed movie that somehow only scored four total nominations. She's sensational as Tessa Quayle, the fiery activist who's murdered for trying to make the world a better place. Thanks to Weisz's compassionate turn, it's easy to fall in love with her character, and here's hoping Academy members are as smitten as I was.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney, Syriana; Matt Dillon, Crash; Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man; Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain; William Hurt, A History of Violence.
Prediction: George Clooney, Syriana. If Dillon wins, count on Crash pulling off the Best Picture upset at night's end; if Gyllenhaal scores, the odds are still in Brokeback's favor. But this seems to be a race between Clooney, who's also nominated in two other categories this year, and Giamatti, whose inexplicable exclusion from the Best Actor lineup in last year's race (for Sideways) kept tongues wagging throughout Oscar season. Giamatti is due, but it's hard to imagine Hollywood Golden Boy (and raging liberal) Clooney going 0-for-3.
Preference: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man. Frankly, this is the weakest of the four acting categories, with plenty of solid turns but no exceptional breakouts -- for starters, they nominated the wrong History of Violence actor (shoulda been Ed Harris) and the wrong Crash actor (shoulda been Terrence Howard). Forced to choose, I would pick Giamatti (with Gyllenhaal a close second), if only because his performance was the most emotionally involving of the bunch.
BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents; Felicity Huffman, Transamerica; Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice; Charlize Theron, North Country; Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line.
Prediction: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line. Past winners Dench and Theron have no chance, and the geezers who like to vote for Pretty Young Things will skip over Knightley for Witherspoon. Yet even without their support, Witherspoon holds the edge over her only real competition, Felicity Huffman. True, Huffman's role as a transsexual is tailor-made for an Academy Award -- more so with that master of Oscar campaigning, Harvey Weinstein, working feverishly behind the scenes. But Witherspoon has long graduated from Hollywood ingénue to serious actress, and past performances (notably her non-nominated turn in Election) prove that she's not just a flavor of the month but someone who will be around for the long haul. Her biggest handicap, oddly enough, is co-star Joaquin Phoenix: Some voters may feel weird about honoring June Carter and not Johnny Cash and go with Huffman instead.
Preference: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line. Except for the wasted Dench nomination, this is a strong lineup. But nobody here can touch Witherspoon, whose fierce and funny performance provides the picture with its soul.
BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote; Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow; Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain; Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line; David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote. Jamie Foxx won last year for portraying Ray Charles, but Joaquin Phoenix shouldn't expect to duplicate the feat for playing another music legend. And Howard and Strathairn needn't prepare acceptance speeches, either, since this is Hoffman versus Heath all the way. To date, Hoffman has won 15 awards for Capote while Ledger has won three for Brokeback -- by that token, Hoffman's a shoo-in. But Ledger's performance has plenty of admirers, and the visibility of Brokeback Mountain is far greater than that of Capote. Still, it's hard to make a case against Hoffman's chances, so I won't.
Preference: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote. The performances by Howard and Ledger are both award-worthy, but I'll have to jump on the Hoffman bandwagon along with everyone else. Then again, I've been on this incredible actor's bandwagon for years -- previously singling out his work in The Talented Mr. Ripley and Almost Famous, to name just two -- and it's gratifying to see him knock another one out of the park with his so-accurate-it's-scary turn as Truman Capote.
BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features; Diana Ossana, James Schamus, producers); Capote (UA/Sony Pictures Classics; Caroline Baron, William Vince, Michael Ohoven, producers); Crash (Lions Gate; Paul Haggis, Cathy Schulman, producers); Good Night, and Good Luck (Warner Independent; Grant Heslov, producer); Munich (Universal & DreamWorks; Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg, Barry Mendel, producers).
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain. When all is said and done, I think Brokeback Mountain will fend off Crash to snag the top award. It's the only one of the nominees to possess the stature for such a designation.
Preference: Brokeback Mountain. My favorite film of 2005, The Constant Gardener, wasn't even nominated, but Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck made my 10 Best list -- both in fact ranking among the top five. Of the pair, my vote goes to Brokeback, which is so good that it easily brushes aside the controversy, the backlash and the cheap labels to retain its standing as one of the most emotionally involving love stories of recent times.