Page 2 of 3
BEST DIRECTOR
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck; Paul Haggis, Crash; Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain; Bennett Miller, Capote; Steven Spielberg, Munich.
Prediction: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain. Even if Crash pulls off the Best Picture upset, it's unlikely that Haggis will win this prize. Ang Lee is practically a lock, not only because he won the Directors Guild Award but because many had expected him to win in this category five years ago for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. His only serious competition is Clooney -- let's not forget that the Academy loves to honor actors in this category (Clint Eastwood, Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner, Robert Redford).
Preference: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain. Ang Lee's versatility never ceases to amaze: While most other directors remain tethered to the same types of pictures, he has leap-frogged from Sense and Sensibility to The Ice Storm to Crouching Tiger to Hulk (OK, we forgive him for Hulk). His subtle work on Brokeback -- perfectly attuned to the rhythms of the material -- might be his most accomplished feat yet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Junebug; Catherine Keener, Capote; Frances McDormand, North Country; Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener; Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain.
Prediction: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener. Weisz won both the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild award, and rarely (if ever) has a performer captured both and then gone on to lose the Oscar. Still, the competition in this formidable category is fierce, even after writing off past winner McDormand. Williams could win as part of a Brokeback sweep, Keener could be recognized for her hard work in 2005 (dissimilar roles in four movies) and Adams has that perky Marisa Tomei/Mira Sorvino vibe going for her. I'll stick with Weisz, but Adams is my upset special.
Preference: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener. Weisz has stated that it's absurd her leading man Ralph Fiennes wasn't nominated (no argument here), meaning she's carrying the torch for an acclaimed movie that somehow only scored four total nominations. She's sensational as Tessa Quayle, the fiery activist who's murdered for trying to make the world a better place. Thanks to Weisz's compassionate turn, it's easy to fall in love with her character, and here's hoping Academy members are as smitten as I was.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney, Syriana; Matt Dillon, Crash; Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man; Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain; William Hurt, A History of Violence.
Prediction: George Clooney, Syriana. If Dillon wins, count on Crash pulling off the Best Picture upset at night's end; if Gyllenhaal scores, the odds are still in Brokeback's favor. But this seems to be a race between Clooney, who's also nominated in two other categories this year, and Giamatti, whose inexplicable exclusion from the Best Actor lineup in last year's race (for Sideways) kept tongues wagging throughout Oscar season. Giamatti is due, but it's hard to imagine Hollywood Golden Boy (and raging liberal) Clooney going 0-for-3.
Preference: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man. Frankly, this is the weakest of the four acting categories, with plenty of solid turns but no exceptional breakouts -- for starters, they nominated the wrong History of Violence actor (shoulda been Ed Harris) and the wrong Crash actor (shoulda been Terrence Howard). Forced to choose, I would pick Giamatti (with Gyllenhaal a close second), if only because his performance was the most emotionally involving of the bunch.
BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents; Felicity Huffman, Transamerica; Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice; Charlize Theron, North Country; Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line.
Prediction: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line. Past winners Dench and Theron have no chance, and the geezers who like to vote for Pretty Young Things will skip over Knightley for Witherspoon. Yet even without their support, Witherspoon holds the edge over her only real competition, Felicity Huffman. True, Huffman's role as a transsexual is tailor-made for an Academy Award -- more so with that master of Oscar campaigning, Harvey Weinstein, working feverishly behind the scenes. But Witherspoon has long graduated from Hollywood ingénue to serious actress, and past performances (notably her non-nominated turn in Election) prove that she's not just a flavor of the month but someone who will be around for the long haul. Her biggest handicap, oddly enough, is co-star Joaquin Phoenix: Some voters may feel weird about honoring June Carter and not Johnny Cash and go with Huffman instead.
Preference: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line. Except for the wasted Dench nomination, this is a strong lineup. But nobody here can touch Witherspoon, whose fierce and funny performance provides the picture with its soul.
BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote; Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow; Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain; Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line; David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Mobile
