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Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote. Jamie Foxx won last year for portraying Ray Charles, but Joaquin Phoenix shouldn't expect to duplicate the feat for playing another music legend. And Howard and Strathairn needn't prepare acceptance speeches, either, since this is Hoffman versus Heath all the way. To date, Hoffman has won 15 awards for Capote while Ledger has won three for Brokeback -- by that token, Hoffman's a shoo-in. But Ledger's performance has plenty of admirers, and the visibility of Brokeback Mountain is far greater than that of Capote. Still, it's hard to make a case against Hoffman's chances, so I won't.
Preference: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote. The performances by Howard and Ledger are both award-worthy, but I'll have to jump on the Hoffman bandwagon along with everyone else. Then again, I've been on this incredible actor's bandwagon for years -- previously singling out his work in The Talented Mr. Ripley and Almost Famous, to name just two -- and it's gratifying to see him knock another one out of the park with his so-accurate-it's-scary turn as Truman Capote.
BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain (Focus Features; Diana Ossana, James Schamus, producers); Capote (UA/Sony Pictures Classics; Caroline Baron, William Vince, Michael Ohoven, producers); Crash (Lions Gate; Paul Haggis, Cathy Schulman, producers); Good Night, and Good Luck (Warner Independent; Grant Heslov, producer); Munich (Universal & DreamWorks; Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg, Barry Mendel, producers).
Prediction: Brokeback Mountain. When all is said and done, I think Brokeback Mountain will fend off Crash to snag the top award. It's the only one of the nominees to possess the stature for such a designation.
Preference: Brokeback Mountain. My favorite film of 2005, The Constant Gardener, wasn't even nominated, but Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck made my 10 Best list -- both in fact ranking among the top five. Of the pair, my vote goes to Brokeback, which is so good that it easily brushes aside the controversy, the backlash and the cheap labels to retain its standing as one of the most emotionally involving love stories of recent times.
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