When it comes to the Oscars, we can handle a two-way race. Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash. Saving Private Ryan vs. Shakespeare In Love. The Aviator vs. Million Dollar Baby. But this notion of a three-way race -- that's a tough one to grasp.
Yet that's the scenario that has unfolded in this year's contest, a development that won't be answered until the last award is handed out at the 79th Annual Academy Awards ceremony, airing live this Sunday, Feb. 25, on ABC. After the scandal that erupted from last year's ceremony -- when homophobia within the Academy ranks prevented Brokeback Mountain from logically claiming the top prize, which went to the largely despised Crash instead -- the organization has this year demonstrated some degree of sanity and good taste with a fairly strong roster of Oscar contenders in all categories. But the group spread the wealth around so much that the most honored film, the eight-time nominee Dreamgirls, isn't even up for Best Picture; in turn, this diffusion has made it impossible for anyone to even reach a consensus on the front-runner.
Most folks at least agree that it's a race between Babel, The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine. Yet there are also pockets of people who believe that either Letters From Iwo Jima or The Queen can take advantage of the showdown between the aforementioned trio and pick up enough stray votes to push its way to the top. The acting categories, on the other hand, have pretty much been locked down for several weeks, though even here, a surprise might emerge on Oscar night.
Here, then, are the contenders in the eight major categories. Last year, I went 7-for-8, only missing Best Picture. Let's hope I don't miss much more than that this year.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer, Todd Phillips; Children of Men, Alfonso Cuaron, Timothy J. Sexton, David Arata, Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby; The Departed, William Monahan; Little Children, Todd Field, Tom Perrotta; Notes On a Scandal, Patrick Marber.
Prediction: The Departed. The Departed is actually a remake of the Hong Kong thriller Infernal Affairs, and Monahan's peers were impressed enough by his interpretation to honor him with the Writers Guild award. The fact that this is the only nominee in this category to score a Best Picture nod also doesn't hurt.
Preference: Little Children. I could just as easily cite Children of Men, but I'm slightly more impressed with the manner in which Field and Perrotta were able to present us with a large number of townspeople who aren't always likable and make us hang on their every word and action.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel, Guillermo Arriaga; Letters From Iwo Jima, Iris Yamashita, Paul Haggis; Little Miss Sunshine, Michael Arndt; Pan's Labyrinth, Guillermo del Toro; The Queen, Peter Morgan.
Prediction: Little Miss Sunshine. Morgan won several hefty awards early on for The Queen (he's also the writer of The Last King of Scotland), but his momentum has slowed down considerably. Babel seems like the logical choice here, given its heavy (and, I daresay, heavy-handed) treatment of significant topics and crosscutting between various storylines. But Little Miss Sunshine just won the Writers Guild award in this category, meaning that many are still basking in the feel-good vibes of this summer sleeper hit. In the midst of so much gloom and doom in this category, look for Arndt's shiny, happy comedy to pull out the pageant win.
Preference: The Queen. Anybody who states that this movie is only about Helen Mirren's performance clearly isn't paying attention. Equally important to its success is Morgan's deft screenplay, which takes a subject that in the wrong hands could have turned out either exploitive or merely dull and brings it to vibrant life. I prefer it by just a sliver to the Pan's Labyrinth script, and a win by either would be fab.
BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima; Stephen Frears, The Queen; Paul Greengrass, United 93; Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel; Martin Scorsese, The Departed.
Prediction: Martin Scorsese, The Departed. Just give him the damn Oscar already! Yes, it would have been nice if the living legend had been awarded the statue for one of his classic films like GoodFellas or Raging Bull. But let's face it, the Academy has a history of handing out better-late-than-never Oscars for the wrong works (Al Pacino for Scent of a Woman?), so why should this time be any different? At any rate, it's hardly an undeserved honor: Scorsese's work on the film is typically dazzling, and it's nice that he'll be recognized for a crime flick, since that's been his primary calling card. The only possible spoiler is Inarritu, who might be carried along if Babel sweeps.
Preference: Paul Greengrass, United 93. No contest. In helming the year's best picture, Greengrass took a subject rife with pitfalls and neatly avoided all of them. The result is a film of enormous power, a galvanizing experience that never plays it safe or looks for easy emotional shortcuts.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza, Babel; Cate Blanchett, Notes On a Scandal; Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine; Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls; Rinko Kikuchi, Babel.
Prediction: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls. Doesn't it just feel like nobody should win this prize? After all, Blanchett just scored in this category two years ago for The Aviator, while the other four nominees all look like one-hit wonders, with no more nods in their respective futures. Still, somebody's got to receive the most votes, and that would appear to be Hudson; as has been widely reported, her big moments in the film have been drawing claps and cheers from audiences everywhere, and her Cinderella story (from American Idol has-been to Hollywood "it girl") is irresistible. Only little Miss Breslin poses any sort of challenge, given her film's popularity.
Preference: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls. Only professional propriety kept me from joining the others in clapping and cheering.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine; Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children; Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond; Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls; Mark Wahlberg, The Departed.
Prediction: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls. It was believed in some quarters that Burt Reynolds lost the Oscar for Boogie Nights for being (as one wag put it) a "sore winner," making it clear that he felt Hollywood owed him the honor for being such a bankable star for so long. Murphy has avoided this pitfall by being largely gracious on the awards circuit, but many feel that his perceived career-long arrogance, coupled with too many bad movies, will send voters scurrying to mark the ballot for sentimental favorite Arkin. That's possible, but I'm still banking on Eddie to pull it off.
Preference: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children. In this rather underwhelming assembly, Haley easily outpaces the competition. His performance as a former child molester is, as expected, creepy, yet the actor works hard to insure that, even if we never sympathize with his character, we at least recognize that he's capable of enormous surges of emotion.
BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Volver; Judi Dench, Notes On a Scandal; Helen Mirren, The Queen; Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada; Kate Winslet, Little Children.
Prediction: Helen Mirren, The Queen. So far, Mirren has won 24 awards for her performance. Any questions?
Preference: Helen Mirren, The Queen. To be fair, the other nominated actresses are excellent in their respective roles -- in fact, 2006 was a strong year for leading ladies, based on the performances that didn't even make the final five. But Mirren's magisterial turn really does exist in a class by itself. She manages to make Elizabeth a figure to be alternately admired, abhorred, pitied and, ultimately, forgiven -- no small feat for any thespian to pull off.
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond; Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson; Peter O'Toole, Venus; Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness; Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland.
Prediction: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland. OK, so he's not quite Helen Mirren, but Whitaker's mesmerizing portrayal of Idi Amin has earned him 16 honors to date. He's clearly the runaway favorite in this category (even if his acceptance speeches have been wretched), but given the Academy's tendency to honor industry old-timers, I wouldn't be shocked to witness an upset by O'Toole. The Lawrence of Arabia star has previously been nominated seven times without ever winning, and members may feel that he deserves more than just the career achievement award they handed him a few years back.
Preference: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland. In terms of amount of screen time, it's hard to argue with anyone who feels that Whitaker should have been placed in the Supporting Actor category. Yet as I wrote in my original review, "The sheer force of Whitaker's performance guarantees that he remains the story's central focus even when he's not in front of the camera. Paradoxically, you can't take your eyes off him, even when he's not there."
BEST PICTURE
Babel (Paramount and Paramount Vantage; Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Jon Kilik, Steve Golin, producers); The Departed (Warner Bros.; Graham King, producer); Letters From Iwo Jima (Warner Bros.; Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg, Robert Lorenz, producers); Little Miss Sunshine (Fox Searchlight; David T. Friendly, Peter Saraf, Marc Turtletaub, producers); The Queen (Miramax, Pathe and Granada; Andy Harries, Christine Langan, Tracey Seaward, producers).
Prediction: Babel. Yes, it's true that The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine both seem to have more momentum than Babel, given their success in recent weeks with the major guilds (Departed scored with the writers' and directors' guilds, Sunshine with the producers', writers' and actors' guilds). And more often than not, the Academy likes to reward commercial success, which gives the clear edge to The Departed (the only nominee to gross over $100 million). As for award antecedents, the only honor Babel has in its corner is the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture (Drama). But among the Best Picture nominees, Babel scored the most nods, and history shows that Oscar smiles brightly on the film that leads the field. Plus, the movie is self-important in that Oscar-friendly manner, and its topical theme concerning the lack of communication in modern society (a text that also informed last year's winner, Crash) will allow voters to feel as if they're doing their part to make the world a better place.
Preference: The Queen. Letters From Iwo Jima and Little Miss Sunshine also made my 10 Best list for 2006, but neither placed higher than The Queen. With United 93 not in the running (for shame, Academy members), I'm pulling for a royal flush, hoping that this will win enough support to sweep aside the babbling Babel. Sharply written, subtly directed, and marvelously performed, it's the crowning achievement among the five nominated titles.
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