The Oscars: Spreading the wealth 

OK, we've had plenty of time to get over the fact that The Dark Knight wasn't nominated for Best Picture, and just as much time to come to terms that Bruce Springsteen's title tune from The Wrestler was also ignored by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. But now there are new developments pertaining to this Sunday's ceremony.

First, there are rumors that the nominees and presenters are being asked to skip the Red Carpet and sneak into the auditorium so they can dazzle audiences from the podium rather than the street (I personally don't care about this, but I realize countless folks watch the Oscars mainly so they can soak in the pre-awards glamour and glitz). And now there's word that the great Peter Gabriel has declined to perform his nominated song from WALL-E on the telecast, because he (rightly) objects to the way the tune will be included as only a 30-second snippet in a medley with the other two nominated songs.

Is the Academy deliberately trying to run its already sinking ratings into the ground?

No matter: My job isn't to save the Academy from itself but to offer predictions in the hotly contested races. Here, then, are the contenders in the eight major categories.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth, Robin Swicord; Doubt, John Patrick Shanley; Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan; The Reader, David Hare; Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy.

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire. It's hard to imagine anything besting Slumdog for this award. Beaufoy has already won numerous honors for his adaptation, including prizes from the Writers Guild and the Hollywood Foreign Press (the folks behind the Golden Globes). Unless the evening breaks the way of Benjamin Button, this one's in the bag.

Preference: Frost/Nixon. I'd go along with Slumdog Millionaire if the final half-hour didn't collapse into a heap of clichés, but that narrative coasting hurts what up until then had been a powerful and imaginative viewing experience. That makes Frost/Nixon my choice, thus marking scripter Morgan as a repeat alternate pick of mine (he deserved -- but didn't get -- the Best Original Screenplay Oscar two years ago for The Queen). Morgan turns the wordplay between Richard Nixon and David Frost into a compelling chess match; viewers who love dialogue won't be disappointed with the resultant fireworks.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Frozen River, Courtney Hunt; Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh; In Bruges, Martin McDonagh; Milk, Dustin Lance Black; WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter.

Prediction: Milk. A handful of Pixar films have been nominated before in this category, but none have ever won. WALL-E's chance at an upset seems stronger than those of its predecessors, for two reasons: 1) WALL-E was the best-reviewed film of 2008, and there might be many voters who feel it deserves more than just a Best Animated Feature Film Oscar; and 2) if the homophobia that resulted in Brokeback Mountain's Crash-and-burn three years ago is still a factor (and, given that intolerant geezers like Tony Curtis and Ernest Borgnine are still with us, who knows?), this stands a far better chance at an upset than the other contenders. Having said that, Milk is clearly the frontrunner, given its standing as the only Best Picture nominee in this category, its Writers Guild win, and its topicality.

Preference: Milk. This category offers a fine crop of unique material, but nothing matches Black's effort. Somehow, he has managed to take the most traditional of the templates on display here -- the respectful biopic -- and infused it with enough wit, passion and vision to revitalize the genre.

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire; Stephen Daldry, The Reader; David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon; Gus Van Sant, Milk.

Prediction: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire. Awards-season prognosticators know that the Directors Guild prize is a remarkably accurate barometer of who will go on to win the Academy Award, so it's a good bet that Boyle already has his Oscar acceptance speech memorized. Daldry and Howard have no chance; Van Sant, next to none. Fincher looms as the upset special if Academy members decide that it must have been a bitch to helm such a lengthy, FX-laden achievement like Benjamin Button.

Preference: Gus Van Sant, Milk. The directors' branch of the Academy often likes to throw one maverick pick into the mix (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly's Julian Schnabel last year, United 93's Paul Greengrass the year before), which is why the Best Picture and Best Director nominees rarely line up. Unfortunately, the branch ignored the deserving likes of Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler) and Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight), leading to a disappointing lineup that matches the Best Picture candidates right down the line. Van Sant stands above the rest: Like his screenwriter, he makes plenty of interesting decisions that guarantee Milk never settles down into historical redundancy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Doubt; Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler.

Prediction: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Since Kate Winslet had been winning this category of late for her lead role in The Reader (Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, etc.), her rightful placement in the Best Actress category leaves this one wide open. Cruz won the lion's share of the critics' prizes, while South Carolina native Davis' single scene in Doubt was powerful enough to earn her nominations from every major group. Henson benefits from being in the category's only Best Picture candidate, but she's a latecomer to the race, garnering little attention until now. Tomei's a past winner (My Cousin Vinny), so that decreases her chances. This is a toss-up between Cruz and Davis; since Doubt co-star Adams might usurp some of Davis' support, I'll hesitantly go with Cruz.

Preference: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Tomei and Henson are especially memorable in their compassionate turns, but between superlative work in this and Elegy, Cruz disproved all those naysayers (myself included) who once believed she could only give good performances in the Spanish language.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin, Milk; Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road.

Prediction: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight. There haven't been many posthumous winners in Oscar history (Network's Peter Finch being the most known), but here's betting Ledger joins their ranks. Beyond the brilliance of his performance and the sorrow over his passing, I'd like to think that Academy members are feeling stupid for ignoring The Dark Knight in every other major category and will make amends here. The only possible spoiler is Brolin, simply because he's suddenly all over the place (six movies in the past two years, including last year's Best Picture winner No Country for Old Men). But really, along with WALL-E for Best Animated Feature Film, this is the closest thing to a lock.

Preference: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight. I loved Downey's performance and was thrilled it got nominated since Oscar tends to look down on unadulterated comic turns (see the other 19 acting nominees for proof), but even he couldn't match Ledger's accomplishment. Even if he hadn't tragically died, it's hard to imagine Ledger being passed over for anyone else: His was an amazingly inventive performance, and it's clear the industry will miss his talent.

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married; Angelina Jolie, Changeling; Melissa Leo, Frozen River; Meryl Streep, Doubt; Kate Winslet, The Reader.

Prediction: Kate Winslet, The Reader. This marks Winslet's sixth nomination, and if she loses again, she'll enter into Deborah Kerr/Thelma Ritter territory (both actresses were nominated six times but always went home empty-handed). Don't count on that happening, though: Academy voters are doubtless ready to honor her for years of reliable service. Hathaway divided the critics' prizes with Happy-Go-Lucky's non-nominated Sally Hawkins, but there doesn't seem to be much love for her movie. Jolie has already won (Supporting for Girl, Interrupted), and Leo clearly falls into the "It's great to just be nominated" category. No, Winslet's only real competition comes from Streep, who earned a record-building 15th nomination. A two-time winner (Kramer vs. Kramer and Sophie's Choice), Streep's last Oscar win came 26 years ago, and it's obvious she deserves at least one more statue on her mantle. But she'll probably have to wait, as Winslet seems more likely to snag this one.

Preference: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married. I'd be much more supportive of Winslet had she been nominated for the better performance (Revolutionary Road). My pick, though, is Hathaway: Overshadowed by her co-stars in Brokeback Mountain and The Devil Wears Prada, she takes center stage in a prickly drama that allows her to shine in a raw, risky turn.

BEST ACTOR

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor; Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Sean Penn, Milk; Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler.

Prediction: Sean Penn, Milk. Oooh, a tough one! With an armful of critics' awards and a standing as one of the finest actors of his generation, Penn would be a lock if not for the pesky fact that he won for Mystic River a mere five years ago. That means momentum shifts to Rourke, who recently won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA (aka British Oscar). But the Oscars are a popularity contest as much as anything, and the frequently uncouth Rourke has made a lot of enemies in Hollywood; if you think that doesn't matter, just ask past frontrunners (and eventual losers) Eddie Murphy and Burt Reynolds. Pitt's only here because he got carried along in the tidal wave of support for Benjamin Button, and Jenkins ... well, see the Melissa Leo comment above. I'm tempted to do the unthinkable and predict respected veteran Langella as the benefactor of a Penn-Rourke split (much as that Jack Nicholson-Daniel Day-Lewis match paved the way for an Adrien Brody victory), but I'll reluctantly go with Penn.

Preference: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler. Both Penn and Rourke deliver the finest performances of their respective careers, and it kills me to have to choose between them. By a sliver, I'll go with Rourke, who conjures up thespian abilities not seen from him since the 1980s -- heck, perhaps not even then -- to carve out what's perhaps the movie year's most complex character.

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount & Warner Bros.; Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, Cean Chaffin, producers); Frost/Nixon (Universal; Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Eric Fellner, producers); Milk (Focus Features; Dan Jinks, Bruce Cohen, producers); The Reader (The Weinstein Company; Anthony Minghella, Sydney Pollack, Donna Gigliotti, Redmond Morris, producers); Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight; Christian Colson, producer).

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire. History has taught us that the movie with the most nominations usually wins the Best Picture Oscar, and here that would be Benjamin Button with 13 nods. But does anyone actually like this movie? It went 0-for-5 at the Golden Globes (where it also led in noms), 0-for-8 with the Broadcast Film Critics Association, 0-for-5 with the Chicago crix, and got completely shut out by the New York, Los Angeles and National Society critics' groups. Milk managed to snag a couple of Best Picture awards and its topicality can't hurt, but remember, this is the group that squirmed while watching Brokeback Mountain. The Reader might be enjoying a surge, thanks to the sympathy over the deaths of two of its producers (past Oscar winners Pollack and Minghella) and the usual strong-arm tactics of studio mogul Harvey Weinstein (who knows how to play the Academy like a fiddle), but I'd like to think the mixed reviews and audience disinterest will eventually take its toll. As for Frost/Nixon, it's enjoyed bridesmaid status throughout the entire awards season, and that's not about to change. That leaves Slumdog Millionaire, which might seem like a slight choice for Best Picture but has been delighting just about everyone who's seen it. It's been an absolute awards beast lately (Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Producers Guild), and its status as a sleeper hit at the box office doesn't hurt. Clearly, Slumdog seems destined to complete the transition from underdog to top dog.

Preference: Milk. This represents one of the weaker Best Picture rosters in recent times, but I'm grateful that my favorite film of 2008 at least made the cut. Thanks to a committed crew and a powerhouse cast, the story of gay activist Harvey Milk has been given a strong platform on which to spread its message of hope and tolerance for all. If just one societal outcast feels inspired by this exceptional film -- or, more miraculously, if just one bigot softens his stance after being exposed to it -- then the film will have served its purpose not just as a memorable piece of entertainment but also as a catalyst for social change.