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Odds on an October surprise

With both political conventions/ infomercials out of the way, we find ourselves entering the home stretch of what may be the most critical Presidential election of our lifetime. With so much at stake, and given the tightness of the race and Karl Rove's track record of "creative politics," much speculation has been raised about the likelihood of an "October surprise" to suddenly boost President Bush's approval ratings. Here are my current odds on various October surprise scenarios that might influence the direction of our Brave New War(s) for years to come.

Osama bin Laden captured/killed -- odds 5 to 2. Would be more believable if we actually still had troops available to be searching for him.

Weapons of Mass Destruction found in Iraq -- 10 to 1. The spin on the justification for war has moved to "bringing freedom to the Iraqi people" (except for journalists, of course), so this one's not too likely either.

Terror Attack timed to cancel elections -- Too plausible and scary to handicap.

The Great Escape -- 15 to 1. Saddam is allowed to "escape" and W gets on his horse and rides off with his oil industry posse to find him. They finally corner the now clean-cut former Iraqi dictator, hiding under an ayatollah's robes. Which leads us to. . .

Republicans release a Hollywood movie to promote conservative themes -- 1000 to 1. Compassion of the Conservative, a film starring Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and Bill O'Reilly, in which they spend two hours beating the crap out of a straw man Liberal. They could also film a sequel to Wag the Dog in case of the aforementioned terror attack. Political blogger www.billmon.org once wrote "The Republicans don't want to get big government off our backs, they want to get big government down on its back, so all the politically well-connected good ol' boys can screw the hell out of her." In that vein, I'd love to see Screw the Pooch with Ken Lay as Executive Producer.

Democrats counter with their own movie -- 1000 to 1. A fun response would be a re-release of The Empire Strikes Back where the film stays exactly the same except that the actors' heads could be digitally replaced. Dubya would be Vader, Cheney would be Emperor Palpatine, Kerry would be Luke, Edwards would be Han and, in his political comeback, Andrew Reyes is Princess Leia. Michael Moore guest stars as Chewbacca.

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