BARKING UP THE RIGHT TREE: Folks expecting major Oscar-night victories for The Artist, starring Uggie and Best Supporting Actress nominee Berenice Bejo, will probably win their office pools.
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Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist.
Preference: Martin Scorsese, Hugo.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Octavia Spencer, The Help.
McCarthy falls into the category of "the nomination is the reward." And even folks who don't like Albert Nobbs agree that McTeer's performance is the best thing about it, although that still translates to a losing battle here. The feeling by many (myself included) that Bejo should be up for Best Actress might help her a bit here, and Chastain gets extra points for appearing in an impressive six films in 2011, including two Best Picture nominees (The Help and The Tree of Life). But Spencer has lately been making a clean sweep on the awards circuit, and it's hard to slow down that sort of momentum.
Prediction: Octavia Spencer, The Help.
Preference: Bérénice Bejo, The Artist.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn; Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Nick Nolte, Warrior; Christopher Plummer, Beginners; Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.
Jonah Hill? Really? But I digress. At any rate, Albert Brooks probably stands more chance of winning for Drive, and he's not even nominated. Branagh has flirted with Oscar a few times before (as actor, writer and director), and he will only continue to flirt, at least for the time being. In another year, 71-year-old veteran Nick Nolte would have stood a great chance of winning, but this year he's overshadowed by 82-year-old veterans Max von Sydow and Christopher Plummer. Plummer has been practically unstoppable — over a dozen awards so far, including the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild prize — and while he's the night's closest thing to a shoo-in, the appreciation for von Sydow's long and distinguished career (he was Ingmar Bergman's leading player, for Pete's sake) leaves me scratchy. Still, it would almost be cruel of the Academy not to honor Plummer at this point.
Prediction: Christopher Plummer, Beginners.
Preference: Christopher Plummer, Beginners.
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs; Viola Davis, The Help; Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo; Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady; Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn.
While there's some modest suspense in a few scattered categories, this is definitely the one with the most intrigue, comparable to Sean Penn vs. Mickey Rourke, Sandra Bullock vs. Meryl Streep, and Hilary Swank vs. Annette Bening (twice!). Mara is happy just to be invited to the party, while Williams will continue to compete for years to come. Close, who entered this year with five previous nominations (all during the 1980s) but no wins, might have received an "it's her time" statue had her movie been better received. No, this is clearly between Davis and Streep, with neither holding an edge. Davis won the SAG award and stars in the top-grossing Best Picture nominee, but many might feel her role is a supporting one, just part of an impressive ensemble. Streep, meanwhile, snagged the Golden Globe and is backed by Weinstein, who's been busy reminding everyone that the great actress hasn't been honored by the Academy in 29 years. Yet The Iron Lady was poorly received, which dims much of the luster surrounding her performance. I'll hesitantly go with Davis.
Prediction: Viola Davis, The Help.
Preference: Viola Davis, The Help.
BEST ACTOR
Demián Bichir, A Better Life; George Clooney, The Descendants; Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Brad Pitt, Moneyball.
My, how the winds have changed in this category. With Pitt winning the first critics' award out the gate (New York Film Critics Circle), it looked like this was finally going to be his year. However, that advantage disappeared as soon as his buddy Clooney started snagging awards, thereby becoming the Oscar frontrunner despite having already won just six years ago (Best Supporting Actor for Syriana). But Dujardin's been on a recent awards tear — couple that with the tidbits that he's backed by the Weinstein publicity machine, that he's part of the Artist parade, and that he's been charming the pants off Americans (including an SNL appearance), and he sure seems to be in control. Let's just hope that if he wins, he doesn't climb on the auditorium seats like that buffoon Roberto Benigni. Upset Special of the Night: Gary Oldman.
Prediction: Jean Dujardin, The Artist.
Preference: George Clooney, The Descendants.
BEST PICTURE
The Artist (Weinstein Company); The Descendants (Fox Searchlight); Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (Warner Bros.); The Help (DreamWorks); Hugo (Paramount); Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics); Moneyball (Columbia); The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight); War Horse (DreamWorks).
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